Planning estimates for equivalent race times at other distances, using Peter Riegel’s power-law model with exponent 1.06.
Table A anchors from 5K times (15:00–40:00). Table B anchors from half marathon times (1:20–2:30). Use the race time predictor for a custom input.
Method
Riegel formula: T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)^1.06. T1 and D1 are your known race. T2 is the predicted time at distance D2.
Exponent 1.06 is the usual road-running value. See Riegel, P. S. (1981), American Scientist, and /methodology on this site.
Limits
Planning estimate only — not a fitness test. Heat, hills, training focus, and large distance jumps reduce accuracy.
For VDOT-based equivalents, see the race equivalent calculator (Daniels). This chart uses Riegel only.
FAQ
Can I download this table as CSV or JSON?
Yes. Use Download CSV for spreadsheets and Excel, or Download JSON for programmatic use. Both files include the full table on this page with source URL and last-updated date.
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What does a 20:00 5K predict for a half marathon?
About 1:32:30 under Riegel (1.06) — a planning estimate, not a guarantee.
What does a 1:45 half marathon predict for a marathon?
About 3:38:30 under Riegel — assumes similar training and conditions.
Is Riegel the same as VDOT?
No. Riegel is a simple power law between two distances. VDOT uses Daniels’ oxygen model. Both are estimates.